BingX has launched its Trade the World campaign, designed to expand user access to global markets through its growing TradFi suite. The initiative brings together multi-asset trading and reward-driven engagement, enabling users to participate in opportunities across equities, indices, and commodities within a unified platform.
The April FOMC meeting delivered no surprise on rates, but it created a more complicated policy backdrop. The Fed held rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, the third consecutive pause this year, which was fully priced in by markets.
The bigger story is that “no rate cuts this year” is becoming the dominant baseline. On Polymarket, the zero-cut outcome is the largest bracket at 44%, while one 25bp cut still carries roughly 25% probability. Futures markets remain slightly more optimistic, still leaning toward one cut as the bullish scenario.
This leaves markets in a transition window: Powell’s continuation is ending, but Warsh’s policy stance has not yet been tested by an actual FOMC vote.
A Divided Fed
The April 29 decision was notable for its internal division. The vote split was 8-4, the most divided outcome since October 1992.
The disagreement centered on the statement language around “the extent and timing of additional adjustment.” Some members saw this as forward guidance with an easing bias and wanted it removed.
That matters because the Fed is no longer debating only the level of rates. It is debating whether the statement itself is too dovish.
Warsh Transition: Faith First, Verification Later
Kevin Warsh’s nomination passed the Senate Banking Committee on April 29 by a 13–11 vote. A full Senate vote is expected the week of May 11, and Powell’s term as Chair expires on May 15.
Warsh takes over during an unusual institutional moment. Powell said he will remain as a Governor for “a period of time to be determined,” creating the possibility of more visible internal disagreement.
Warsh is being priced as a “rate dove, balance-sheet hawk.” The market believes he may be open to rate cuts, but could also accelerate quantitative tightening. That combination could produce a strange outcome: easier policy rates, but tighter liquidity conditions.
His first real policy test comes on June 17, when he hosts his first FOMC meeting and releases an updated Dot Plot.
Inflation: Headline Hot, Core Still Calm
The data picture is mixed.
March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since May 2024. Monthly CPI rose 0.9%, driven heavily by gasoline, which was up 21.2%.
But core inflation remains more moderate:
-
March Core PCE: 2.6% year-over-year
-
March Core PCE: 0.0% month-over-month
This creates the central contradiction. Headline inflation is rising because of energy shocks, while core inflation has not yet shown meaningful deterioration.
That makes the May 12 April CPI release especially important. If oil-driven inflation spills into core data, the zero-cut case strengthens. If core remains contained, a September or November cut remains possible.
The Main Impact Chain
The current market logic is:
Oil shock from Iran → headline CPI jumps to 3.3% → Fed splits over dovish wording → 8–4 vote → 2026 cut expectations flatten → short-term rates price “higher for longer.”
From here, there are three main paths:
-
If April CPI cools and Core PCE stays moderate, Warsh may have room to cut later in the year.
-
If oil shocks continue and core inflation rises, zero cuts becomes the firm baseline.
-
If Warsh accelerates QT, markets could face rate-cut hopes alongside passive liquidity tightening.
Market Positioning
The key split is between prediction markets and futures markets.
Polymarket is leaning harder toward no cuts, with zero cuts at 44%. Fed funds futures still leave room for one 25bp cut.
Some sell-side firms have gone further, removing expectations for rate cuts even in 2026.
This divergence shows that the market has not fully settled on a single macro regime. The narrative is split between dovish AI productivity hopes, hawkish energy-driven inflation, and neutral rate pricing.
What to Watch Next
The key dates are clear:
May 12: April CPI release
May 15: Powell exit and Warsh inauguration window
June 17: Warsh’s first FOMC meeting and Dot Plot update
The near-term risks are inflation spillover, political conflict around Fed independence, renewed energy shocks, tariffs, and whether the “AI productivity” disinflation narrative can survive real data.
For now, the Fed story is less about one meeting and more about the policy vacuum between two regimes. Markets know Powell’s reaction function. They do not yet know Warsh’s.