Over the past month, XRP has dropped more than 26% in price, while its open interest on Binance has slid to $406 million, the lowest reading since November 2024. This reduction in leveraged positions is seen as a derivatives "reset" that may allow spot demand and on-chain activity to guide a potential trend reversal. At the same time, XRP's macro RSI has moved into the 45-50 zone that one analyst links to prior rebounds, and US spot XRP ETFs recorded $19.46 million of inflows on February 3rd.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said the market has been in crypto winter since January 2025 and suggested the downturn may be nearing its end. He noted Bitcoin is down almost 39% from its October 2025 all-time high and Ethereum 53%, while ETFs and DATs bought over 744,000 BTC, providing roughly $75 billion of support.

Bitcoin sank about 15% between January 28 and 31, then dropped roughly 10% on Saturday, forcing over $2 billion in long liquidations. On-chain and market-structure signals point to risks of a move toward the 200-week average near $58,000 and the realized price around $56,000. One analyst now sees a potential cycle bottom in the $54,000–$44,000 range.

Fundstrat's Tom Lee said the recent ETH sell‑off looks misaligned with fundamentals, citing low leverage and strength in gold. BitMine added 41,788 ETH last week and, as of February 1st–2, reported 2,897,459 ETH staked (about $6.7 billion) and $10.7 billion in total crypto and investment assets, with no outstanding debt.

Digital asset investment products recorded $1.7 billion of weekly outflows, leaving year-to-date net outflows at $1 billion. Assets under management have declined by $73 billion since October 2025 highs, with Bitcoin, Ethereum and other majors seeing withdrawals while short Bitcoin funds drew $14.5 million.

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin briefly slid toward $74,000 before recovering above $76,800 and remains down 13% for the week. Analyst Doctor Profit cut his projected cycle low to a $54,000–$44,000 range and expects a move toward $70,000 first. Matrixport reported three consecutive months of net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin traded below $79,000 as Coinbase and Glassnode reported that leverage was purged in the fourth quarter of 2025. The firms highlighted rising realized price, stable profitability, and a 1.5 MVRV ratio entering 2026.

In 2025, TRM Labs reported that wallets it classifies as illicit received around $158 billion in crypto inflows, the highest level in five years, largely tied to Russia-linked sanctions designations and better attribution. The firm noted that the A7A5 token and the A7 wallet cluster together accounted for over $100 billion in incoming value connected to Russian actors, including Garantex and Grinex, while illicit activity still represented only 1.2% of total on-chain volume.

Bitcoin long‑term holders moved more than 370,000 BTC on‑chain over the past 30 days, far exceeding what net position change alone suggests. Average LTH outflows topped 12,000 BTC per day, while net LTH supply declined by about 144,000 BTC as roughly 226,000 BTC matured from short‑term to long‑term status.