The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 15 out of 100 this week, reaching extreme fear levels last seen in February and comparable to sentiment when Bitcoin traded at $18,000 in 2022, according to Santiment. The market intelligence platform suggests this capitulation phase could set up a contrarian rally as retail traders exit positions while long-term holders accumulate. Bitcoin currently trades around $101,700, with Ethereum near $3,400.

Bitwise analyst André Dragosch has questioned the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model's $222,000 cycle peak forecast, stating it overlooks institutional demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries. Institutional holdings now represent approximately seven times the annual supply reduction from the recent halving. The model's reliance on scarcity metrics may no longer capture price dynamics in a market dominated by institutional capital flows rather than retail activity.